The Emerging Global Gas Cartel Landscape and US Involvement

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) and Its Evolution Toward a Cartel

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) represents a significant concentration of global natural gas power, with its members collectively controlling:

71% of global gas reserves
44% of global gas production
53% of global gas pipeline infrastructure
57% of global LNG exports

Founded in 2001 in Tehran, the GECF has gradually evolved toward greater coordination among gas-producing nations, particularly its core members Russia, Iran, and Qatar. While not yet operating as a formal cartel on the scale of OPEC, numerous energy security analysts and policy organizations (including the Heritage Foundation) have identified clear cartel-like behaviors emerging from the organization.

The formation of a "Gas Troika" between Russia, Iran, and Qatar in 2008 marked a significant step toward more coordinated gas policy. This alignment represents a concentration of power, as these three nations alone control approximately 60% of global natural gas reserves.

Russia-Iran Gas Pipeline and Strategic Cooperation (2025)

In January 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to build a significant gas pipeline to Iran, designed to eventually transport up to 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually. This development represents a major expansion of the Russia-Iran energy relationship and potentially strengthens the foundation for a more powerful gas cartel.

According to analysis from the Stimson Center, Russia and Iran decided to route this pipeline through Azerbaijan rather than beneath the Caspian Sea due to technical and ecological constraints. By April 2025, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev confirmed that Russia would begin delivering natural gas to Iran within the year.

This Russia-Iran cooperation extends beyond mere gas transportation and appears aimed at creating a coordinated approach to global gas markets. Through joint investments, infrastructure development, and policy coordination, these countries are positioning themselves to exert greater influence over global energy flows and pricing.

United States' Emerging Role in Gas Pipeline Politics

Recent developments indicate a surprising and significant shift in the United States' approach to Russian gas pipelines, suggesting a potential reorientation from opposition to participation:

Nord Stream Pipeline Discussions

Multiple credible sources from 2025 report that US and Russian officials have engaged in discussions about potentially restarting or taking some form of control over the Nord Stream gas pipelines:

According to The Moscow Times (March 2025), "Russian and U.S. negotiators held secret talks on resuming gas flows to Germany via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline."
Reuters reported in May 2025 that "officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the US helping to revive Russian gas sales to the continent."
German newspaper Bild reported in March 2025 that "The Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline may be transferred to US control so that Germany can receive gas from Russia."

These discussions represent a dramatic departure from previous US policy, which had strongly opposed Nord Stream 2 and celebrated its effective neutralization following the 2022 pipeline damage incidents.

US Demand for Control of Ukrainian Pipeline

In April 2025, The Guardian published a report titled "US 'demands control' from Ukraine of key pipeline carrying Russian gas," revealing US interest in directly controlling the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline. This Soviet-era pipeline runs from western Russia through Ukraine to the European Union and has been a critical route for Russian gas exports to Europe.

A senior Kyiv economist described the Trump administration's position as "colonial-type bullying," suggesting the US was leveraging its support for Ukraine to gain strategic control over this vital energy infrastructure.

Theoretical Framework: Potential US-Russia Gas Collaboration

The emerging evidence suggests several possible interpretations of US-Russia interactions in the gas sector:

The Broker Theory

Rather than opposing Russian gas exports to Europe, the US appears to be positioning itself as a potential intermediary or broker. By gaining control of key pipeline infrastructure between Russia and Europe, the US could potentially:

Extract economic benefits through transit fees or pricing mechanisms
Gain political leverage over both Russia and European nations
Ensure some level of energy security for European allies while maintaining influence

The "Energy Stability" Theory

Some analysts suggest that US involvement might be aimed at stabilizing global energy markets in a way that serves US interests. By participating in rather than opposing Russian gas exports, the US could:

Help moderate global gas prices
Prevent more extreme market volatility
Ensure European allies have adequate energy supplies while gradually transitioning to alternative sources

The "Counter-Cartel" Theory

A more strategic interpretation suggests the US is attempting to insert itself into the emerging gas cartel framework to prevent Russia, Iran, and Qatar from achieving uncontested dominance. By taking control of key infrastructure, the US could:

Limit the leverage of the GECF's dominant members
Prevent coordinated price manipulation
Maintain influence over global gas flows and pricing

Implications for Global Energy Markets

The potential emergence of a gas cartel with significant US involvement has several profound implications:

Energy Security Reconfiguration

European nations face a complex dilemma, as reported by Reuters in April 2025: "Businesses are wary that reliance on the United States has become another vulnerability" even as they attempt to reduce dependency on Russian gas. The EU is currently moving toward banning all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, but these plans could be complicated by US-Russia gas arrangements.

Market Power Concentration

If the US succeeds in gaining control over key Russian gas export routes while Russia, Iran, and Qatar strengthen their coordination through the GECF, this could result in a highly concentrated global gas market dominated by a small number of powerful actors. This concentration could potentially:

Increase price volatility
Enable coordinated supply management
Reduce the influence of traditional market forces

Geopolitical Realignment

The potential US role in Russian gas exports to Europe suggests a significant recalibration of energy geopolitics. While the US has historically opposed Russian energy dominance in Europe, these recent developments indicate a more nuanced approach that accommodates Russian gas exports under conditions that provide the US with significant influence and economic benefits.

Conclusion: The Emerging Gas Order

The global natural gas landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with increasing evidence of cartel-like coordination among major producers through the GECF, strengthening bilateral energy ties between Russia and Iran, and the surprising emergence of potential US involvement in Russian gas exports to Europe.

While a formal "Gas OPEC" has not yet materialized, the structural foundations for such an entity are being established. The US appears to be adapting its approach, moving from opposition to potential participation in this emerging gas order, seeking to secure influence rather than exclude Russian gas from global markets.

These developments suggest a future where global gas markets are increasingly managed by a small number of powerful actors, with the US potentially seeking to balance or moderate the influence of the Russia-Iran-Qatar axis rather than directly opposing it.

This strategic reconfiguration of global gas politics warrants close attention from policymakers, energy security analysts, and market participants, as it could fundamentally reshape energy flows, pricing mechanisms, and geopolitical alignments in the coming years.